National Research Inc. for Leonard Lance (6/24-25, likely voters):
Linda Stender (D): 35
Leonard Lance (R): 42
(MoE: ±5.6%)
This is an internal poll by a GOP pollster, the kind that only gets released if it has ridiculously showy results for the candidate who commissioned it, so take it with the requisite bucket of salt. But I haven’t seen any polling of the open seat in NJ-07 before (or any hot northeast House races, come to think of it), so I thought I’d put it out there.
The poll shows both candidates little-known, with state senator Lance with a 20% favorable and 11% unfavorable rating, and Stender in a puzzling pickle, with unfavorables (29%) greater than her favorables (20%). Stender has a huge edge in cash on hand, though (more than $1 million), so possibly look for an ad blitz to try and ‘fix’ that soon.
Despite almost half the district voting for her in 06 she only has a 20 percent favorable rating?
Stender also as noted has a huge CoH advantage so even if this is true I’m not sweating.
Also O/T but looks like the DSCC is going big in NC
http://projects.newsobserver.c…
Putting 6 million in on TV ads.
It sure looks like we will have competitive races in 10 places for sure (VA, NM, CO, NH, AK, MS, OR, MN, ME, NC) compared to 6 in 06. And Kentucky (Lunsford can put enough money into it to match Mitch and polls show it close) and Nebraska (Kleeb has shown the strongest fundraising of the longer shots such as OK, ID, GA and KS and Nebraska’s history of electing Democrats to the Senate seem to make it the most likely of those to become a top tier race).
Imagine that.
We could have TWICE as many pickups as we did in 06. Think about that.
A 63 seat Democratic majority. Let’s make it happen.
I doubt Stender is down at all, much less by 7 points. Her huge cash advantage should allow her to win by a decent margin.
Even if it is a valid snapshot, it won’t last for long.
1. Too many undecideds.
2. Internal for the R shows the R leading. Surprise surprise.
The unfavorables are easy enough to figure. Ferguson ran commercials with the tag line Linda Stender is a Spender. The hard right already “knows” about her and is (shock) unfavorable. The rest is junk. Stender lost by 3,000 votes (with a fringe anti-war candidate drawing 3,000 votes). She’ll murderate Leonard Lance.